Moscow prepares for major announcement on February 24

As Russia marks the third anniversary of its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Ukrainian intelligence has claimed that the Kremlin is preparing to declare “victory” in its war against Ukraine and NATO.

According to a report by the Kyiv Independent, Russian state propagandists have been directed to amplify a narrative of triumph on February 24, a date symbolic of the war’s beginning. Ukrainian Military Intelligence (HUR) suggests that Moscow intends to use this declaration to sow doubt within Ukrainian society, destabilize the country, and discredit Kyiv’s Western allies.

A strategic information campaign

HUR alleges that Russia’s propaganda efforts are designed to spread key narratives such as:

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• “The West betrayed Ukraine.”
• “Neither Moscow nor Washington cares about the opinion of Europeans and Ukrainians.”
• “The Ukrainian government is illegitimate.”

These claims, which have been widely circulated by Kremlin media, have also surfaced in statements from certain US officials, according to HUR.

“In addition, Russia is preparing to declare an alleged ‘victory’ in the war against Ukraine by the ’round date’ of Feb. 24, 2025, the third anniversary of the beginning of the full-scale war,” the intelligence agency stated in a Telegram post.

Russia’s portrayal of a war against NATO

HUR further suggested that Moscow may attempt to frame its “victory” as not just a triumph over Ukraine but over NATO itself. For years, Russian state media has portrayed the conflict as a direct confrontation between Russia and the Western alliance.

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Another reported objective of Russia’s messaging is to undermine Ukraine’s European allies, particularly as they work to secure a €6 billion military aid package to bolster Kyiv’s defenses.

“For such European governments, the Kremlin is slapping on the ‘enemies of peace’ label,” HUR warned.

Three years of war: A shifting geopolitical landscape

February 24 marks three years since Russian President Vladimir Putin launched what he initially described as a “special military operation.” Since then, the conflict has evolved into Europe’s largest war since World War II, causing widespread devastation.

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The war has led to the deaths of tens of thousands on both sides, displaced millions of Ukrainians, and further isolated Russia from the West. Meanwhile, US foreign policy has shown signs of shifting under the Trump administration, with warming ties between Washington and Moscow adding another layer of complexity to the ongoing conflict.

With tensions high and Moscow reportedly planning its symbolic declaration, the coming days could prove pivotal for the war’s trajectory and Ukraine’s international support.

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