In a stark warning about artificial intelligence’s existential threat to humanity, Geoffrey Hinton, the renowned “godfather of AI,” has elevated his previous prediction of humanity’s extinction risk, marking a sobering milestone in the debate over AI safety.

The escalating risk

Geoffrey Hinton, the British-Canadian computer scientist and recent Nobel laureate in Physics, has revised his assessment of AI’s threat to human existence. In a revealing interview with BBC Radio 4’s Today program, Hinton estimated a “10% to 20%” probability of AI causing human extinction within the next 30 years, an increase from his earlier 10% prediction.

The intelligence dilemma

Hinton frames the challenge in stark terms, highlighting humanity’s unprecedented situation. “You see, we’ve never had to deal with things more intelligent than ourselves before,” he explained to BBC Radio 4. Drawing a concerning parallel, he noted, “And how many examples do you know of a more intelligent thing being controlled by a less intelligent thing? There are very few examples. There’s a mother and baby. Evolution put a lot of work into allowing the baby to control the mother, but that’s about the only example I know of.”

Hinton, who is also a professor emeritus at the University of Toronto, described humans as toddlers when compared to advanced AI systems. “I like to think of it as: imagine yourself and a three-year-old. We’ll be three-year-olds,” he said.

A call for regulation

Following his resignation from Google in 2023, Hinton has become increasingly vocal about the need for government oversight of AI development. He emphasized that the pace of advancement has exceeded expectations, warning that profit-driven companies alone cannot ensure safe AI development. “The only thing that can force those big companies to do more research on safety is government regulation,” he stressed.

The urgency of Hinton’s warning is underscored by expert predictions suggesting AI systems could surpass human intelligence within the next two decades. Reflecting on the rapid progress, Hinton admitted, “I didn’t think it would be where we (are) now. I thought at some point in the future we would get here.”