Historic water-sharing agreement faces crisis after Kashmir terror attack

India has announced the immediate suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty with Pakistan, escalating tensions between the two countries following a deadly terror attack in Kashmir that left 26 tourists dead. The move is part of broader diplomatic measures to downgrade ties with its neighbor.

The treaty, considered one of the world’s most resilient international agreements, had survived multiple wars and decades of political hostility between the two nuclear-armed nations. But India’s decision on Wednesday has placed its future in serious doubt.

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What the Indus Waters Treaty outlines

Signed in 1960 with World Bank mediation, the Indus Waters Treaty governs the use of rivers that originate in India and flow into Pakistan. It divides control of six rivers: India has rights over the eastern rivers — Sutlej, Beas, and Ravi — while Pakistan controls the western rivers — Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab.

Though the treaty includes mechanisms for dispute resolution, it does not allow for unilateral termination or suspension by either party.

Disputes over dams and water rights

Pakistan relies heavily on the Indus Basin for irrigation and hydropower. It has long accused India of diverting water through upstream projects such as barrages and dams. India, however, insists its hydropower projects — including Kishanganga and Ratle — comply with treaty terms and has called for changes to the agreement to avoid procedural delays caused by Pakistan’s objections.

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Pakistan has taken several of these disputes to neutral experts and arbitration panels, arguing that reduced flows would devastate its agriculture-dependent economy.

What changes with the suspension?

While the immediate flow of water is unlikely to stop — since India lacks sufficient storage infrastructure — the suspension gives New Delhi the right to withhold key data on water releases and floods. It may also halt the sharing of water during dry months, potentially worsening Pakistan’s water crisis.

Pakistan’s response

The Pakistani government condemned the move, calling the treaty a binding international agreement that cannot be suspended unilaterally. “Any attempt to stop or divert the flow of water… will be considered an act of war and responded to with full force,” said a statement from Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s office.

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Agricultural experts in Pakistan are warning of severe consequences. “The treaty is the backbone of our agriculture,” said Ghasharib Shaokat from Pakistan Agriculture Research. “Erratic flows would disrupt irrigation and hurt yields for crops like wheat, rice, and sugarcane.”

Farmers echoed similar concerns, with Khalid Hussain Baath, chairman of a national farmers’ union, calling the move “a true war.” He noted that already low rainfall and snowmelt this year have reduced water availability by as much as 25%.

As tensions rise, the fate of one of South Asia’s most vital water-sharing agreements remains uncertain.

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