The shortage of toilet paper risks reviving painful memories of pandemic-era shortages when store shelves were stripped bare amid panic buying.

Trump’s proposed tariffs on Canada could cause a crisis

US President Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs on Canada could lead to an unexpected crisis in America, triggering panic-buying reminiscent of the early days of the coronavirus pandemic. The Trump administration plans to nearly double duties on Canadian softwood lumber, a move that could severely disrupt the supply chain of an essential household item—toilet paper.

Trump has pledged to raise duties on softwood lumber to 27% as soon as April 2, with potential additional levies pushing the rate beyond 50%. This measure could impact the availability of northern bleached softwood kraft pulp (NBSK), a material derived from wood chips that is crucial for manufacturing toilet paper and paper towels, according to Bloomberg.

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The role of Canadian pulp in US paper production

NBSK is highly valued for its tensile strength and constitutes about 30% of standard US bathroom tissue and half of a typical paper towel.

In 2024, the US imported 2 million tons of Canadian NBSK, highlighting the strong reliance of American paper-goods producers on Canadian pulp, according to Brian McClay, chairman of Trusted Providers of Global Pulp Market Information.

“Some of these mills in the United States, some of the big branded products, not only want softwood pulp from Canada, they want softwood pulp from this particular mill. They’ve been using it for 30 years, and they will not change,” McClay explained.

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He also warned that if import taxes on lumber exceed 50%, “that’s going to put some sawmills out of business, and that’ll reduce the supply of wood chips. Because we don’t really cut trees to make pulp in Canada, we depend on residual chips from sawmills. It would certainly boost the cost and probably reduce output.”

This situation raises concerns of a repeat of the toilet paper shortages seen during the pandemic when store shelves were emptied due to panic buying. Additionally, it could lead to higher prices for consumers.

Why Americans rely on Canadian lumber

Trump has long championed tariffs as a means to bring manufacturing back to the US, arguing that his country does not need Canadian lumber. However, industry experts say Canadian softwood pulp has unique qualities that are difficult to replace with American alternatives.

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Frederic Verreault, vice president of corporate affairs at Les Chantiers de Chibougamau Ltee, a Quebec-based wood processor, emphasized that Americans purchase Canadian products because “they are the best and the most integrated into their factories.”

Jean-Francois Samray, head of the Quebec Forest Industry Council, noted that sawmills are not easily adjustable. “It’s like pipelines, it’s like power grids: It’s all full, or all empty. The softwood industry operates in a ‘pure and perfect competition market,’ so in a market like that, there will be temporary closures, reduced production, which will have an effect on continental supply and demand.”

Increasing tariffs and trade disputes

The US currently imposes duties totaling more than 14% on Canadian lumber as part of a long-running trade dispute. One of these duties is set to increase this year, raising the cumulative burden to nearly 27%, according to a US Department of Commerce proposal.

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Additionally, the White House’s proposed 25% tariffs on various Canadian goods could push import taxes to approximately 52%. Further investigations ordered by Trump into national security concerns related to lumber imports could result in even more tariffs.

On April 2, a US delay in applying the 25% levies on goods covered under its trade agreement with Canada is set to expire. On the same day, Trump has vowed to introduce additional sweeping tariffs aimed at making US trade policies “reciprocal.”

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