Without urgent intervention, nearly 260 million Americans—about three-quarters of the country’s adult population—could be overweight or obese by 2050, according to a new report from the Global Burden of Disease Study Collaborator Network.

Obesity crisis deepens, especially among children

The analysis predicts a stark rise in obesity, affecting 213 million adults over 25 years old and 43 million children and adolescents aged 5 to 24. The report highlights the escalating health consequences, with obesity rates already linked to an increased prevalence of hypertension, type 2 diabetes, heart disease, stroke, and cancer.

“Our findings expose the decades-long failure to curb the rising tide of overweight and obesity in the USA,” said Professor Emmanuela Gakidou of the University of Washington, lead author of the study. “The health and economic repercussions are set to be catastrophic, with children and adolescents facing unprecedented levels of obesity.”

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Southern states hit the hardest

The study notes that the highest levels of obesity and overweight are concentrated in southern states like Mississippi, Texas, Alabama, and Arkansas. In 2021, nearly two-thirds of older adolescent females in Mississippi and over half of Texas males aged 15 to 24 were classified as overweight or obese.

Projections indicate that between 2021 and 2050, the greatest rise in obesity among men will occur in Colorado and New Mexico, while Kansas and Colorado will see the highest increase among adult women. However, the South is expected to remain the epicenter of the obesity crisis.

Economic costs and limitations of weight-loss drugs

Researchers warn that the economic burden of obesity will be substantial, and popular weight-loss medications like Ozempic and Wegovy may not be enough to curb the epidemic. While these drugs have seen increased use, the report stresses that relying solely on pharmaceutical solutions is not a viable strategy.

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“The use of drugs alone will not address the root causes of obesity,” Gakidou noted. “Systemic changes are required, including legislative actions focused on prevention and intervention strategies.”

Call for legislative action and systemic changes

The study urges lawmakers to implement comprehensive policies to combat the obesity crisis, such as programs to promote physical activity and ensure access to healthy foods. The researchers also call for addressing structural issues like economic inequalities, urbanization, and the food system’s transformation, which have all contributed to the rise in obesity.

“Obesity is at a crisis point across the United States, with every state facing its own unique challenges,” said co-author Dr. Marie Ng, an Affiliate Associate Professor at the University of Washington. “This epidemic is not only a health issue but also a symptom of deeper socio-economic disparities that need to be addressed.”

The road ahead: Immediate action needed

The analysis, published in The Lancet and funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, utilized extensive data sources, including national health surveys. It defines overweight as a body mass index (BMI) between 25 and 30 and obesity as a BMI over 30, according to International Obesity Task Force criteria.

The report concludes with a stark warning: without swift and coordinated efforts, the country faces a future where the majority of its population—children and adults alike—will grapple with the long-term consequences of obesity, from chronic diseases to reduced life expectancy.

“Immediate and united action is needed to reverse these troubling trends,” Gakidou emphasized. “It’s a matter of health, economy, and the well-being of future generations.”