Israel is heading toward one of its most closely watched elections in years, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu facing a serious challenge from former military chief Gadi Eisenkot.

The country’s Knesset election is scheduled for October 27, with the campaign unfolding after years of war, political upheaval, and intense public debate over the government’s handling of the October 7, 2023 Hamas attack.

Eisenkot has emerged as the leading individual contender in several prediction markets. On Polymarket, traders were recently giving him roughly a 47% chance of becoming Israel’s next prime minister, compared with about 36% for Netanyahu. Kalshi’s election market has also put Eisenkot ahead, at around 50%, versus 34% for Netanyahu.

But prediction markets are not election polls, and neither number means Eisenkot is likely to win the premiership outright.

Israel’s political system makes the outcome considerably more complicated.

Israel does not directly elect its prime minister

Unlike a presidential election, Israel’s national vote is primarily a contest among political parties for seats in the 120-member Knesset.

A party does not need to win a majority on its own. After the election, the president consults with elected parties and assigns the task of forming a government to the politician considered most capable of assembling parliamentary support.

That means the person who leads the largest party is not automatically the next prime minister.

For Netanyahu, this has long been central to his political strategy. Even when his Likud party has not commanded a majority by itself, he has been able to remain in power by bringing together right-wing and religious parties.

The same arithmetic could work for or against him after October 27.

What are prediction markets saying?

Prediction markets currently give Eisenkot a noticeable advantage over Netanyahu in the race for the next premiership.

Polymarket’s market on the next prime minister after the 2026 election recently listed Eisenkot at about 47%, followed by Netanyahu at roughly 36%. Naftali Bennett was a distant third at around 10%.

Kalshi’s dedicated market, asking who will be prime minister after the 2026 election, has likewise placed Eisenkot ahead, at approximately 50%, with Netanyahu at 34%.

A separate, longer-running Kalshi contract asking who will eventually succeed Netanyahu also places Eisenkot ahead, but that market has different rules and a much longer time horizon. It should not be treated as interchangeable with the election-specific market.

Prediction markets essentially capture the probability traders are assigning to an outcome. They can move quickly in response to polls, headlines, debates, and political developments.

They are useful as a gauge of expectations, but they are not a substitute for voting data.

What do the latest opinion polls show?

The polling picture is considerably tighter.

An election aggregation published on October 5, based on the latest available polls from seven pollsters, puts Netanyahu’s broader bloc at an average of 54.6 seats.

The main anti-Netanyahu Zionist bloc is averaging 48.8 seats.

Other parties, including Arab lists, account for the remaining seats and could become crucial in determining who is able to build a government.

The key number is 61, the halfway mark in the 120-seat Knesset.

Neither major bloc is anywhere close to consistently reaching that div.

The latest polling average therefore does not show an opposition wave strong enough to guarantee Netanyahu’s removal.

In fact, the Netanyahu bloc has led the aggregate average on every date tracked since September 6, although its advantage has narrowed from earlier levels.

Why Eisenkot can lead the race for prime minister while his bloc trails

This is one of the most important distinctions in the election.

Eisenkot’s Yashar party is polling extremely well as an individual party. The latest seven-poll average gives it about 21 seats, compared with roughly 22 for Netanyahu’s Likud.

Several individual surveys have actually placed Yashar ahead.

A Kan poll published October 4, for example, projected 23 seats for Yashar against 21 for Likud.

That makes Eisenkot the leader of the largest or one of the largest parties in several scenarios, but it does not automatically give him a governing majority.

His potential coalition partners matter much more.

The anti-Netanyahu camp contains several parties that do not necessarily share identical political priorities. Bringing them together after election day could prove considerably harder than winning votes during the campaign.

Netanyahu’s path to another government

Netanyahu’s greatest advantage is the strength of his established coalition network.

His Likud remains the core of a bloc that includes right-wing and religious parties. While individual poll numbers fluctuate, those parties collectively give Netanyahu a credible route toward a coalition.

The latest polling average puts his bloc at 54.6 seats, leaving it only a handful short of the 61-seat benchmark.

That is an uncomfortable position, but it is also far stronger than an outright electoral defeat.

A few seats changing hands could dramatically alter the coalition calculations.

This is why Netanyahu’s campaign will likely focus not only on increasing Likud’s own tally but also on ensuring that its natural allies clear the electoral threshold and remain strong enough to contribute seats.

Eisenkot’s biggest problem may come after the vote

Eisenkot faces an entirely different challenge.

The anti-Netanyahu Zionist parties are collectively below 61 seats in the polling average. Arab parties are projected to win a significant number of seats, but their participation in a governing coalition remains politically difficult.

Eisenkot has sought to build a centrist, security-focused alternative to Netanyahu, while his opponents are trying to assemble a broader anti-Netanyahu coalition.

That leaves a narrow path.

Eisenkot would need his allies to perform strongly, and then he would need enough parliamentary support to convince the president that he is capable of forming a government.

The difference between being the most popular individual choice for prime minister and actually controlling a majority coalition could therefore be decisive.

What happened in the latest direct Netanyahu-Eisenkot preference poll?

The numbers also show why declaring a clear favorite is premature.

A September 28 Kan poll reported by The Jerusalem Post found that 39% of respondents preferred Netanyahu as prime minister, while 38% preferred Eisenkot when the two were directly compared.

That is effectively a statistical dead heat.

So while prediction markets currently give Eisenkot a stronger implied probability of becoming prime minister, some direct voter-preference polling shows Netanyahu remaining highly competitive.

The two measures answer different questions.

Prediction markets ask traders who they think will ultimately hold office. Polls ask voters about their preferences or how they intend to vote.

Those are related, but they are not the same thing.

Netanyahu enters the election with both liabilities and advantages

The prime minister is campaigning under the long shadow of the October 7 attack.

Critics continue to demand accountability for the security failures that allowed Hamas to carry out the assault and take hostages. The subsequent wars and prolonged military operations have further intensified the political debate over Netanyahu’s leadership.

At the same time, Netanyahu retains a deeply loyal political base and continues to present himself as the leader best equipped to deal with Israel’s security threats.

That contrast is reflected in the polling.

Eisenkot offers voters an experienced former military commander promising political change, while Netanyahu emphasizes his record during years of conflict and his ability to navigate Israel’s complex security environment.

The election will also test Israel’s political map

The 2026 election is unusual for another reason.

The 25th Knesset is reaching the end of a full four-year term, something that is rare in Israel’s recent political history. The Knesset’s own records noted during the dissolution process that completing four full years was unusual in Israeli politics.

The election is also the first national vote since the October 7 attack, making security, accountability and the government’s wartime record major themes of the campaign.

But economic pressures, military service exemptions for ultra-Orthodox Jews, relations between secular and religious Israelis and the future political structure of the country are also shaping the contest.

Could Netanyahu still remain prime minister?

Absolutely.

The prediction markets currently suggest Eisenkot is more likely than Netanyahu to become the next prime minister, but those markets are nowhere near certainty.

The latest polling does not show either major bloc securing a dependable 61-seat majority.

Netanyahu therefore does not need to finish first in a direct popularity contest to remain prime minister. He needs a parliamentary coalition that can support his government.

Eisenkot faces the same basic arithmetic, but without an established governing bloc behind him.

That makes the days after the election potentially just as important as election night itself.

What could determine the outcome?

Several factors could reshape the race during the final weeks.

The first is Likud’s final seat tally. A stronger Likud performance could make Netanyahu’s coalition path considerably easier.

The second is whether the smaller right-wing and religious parties cross the electoral threshold. A party falling below the threshold can effectively erase several expected seats from a potential coalition.

The third is the performance of Bennett’s party and other centrist or opposition parties. Fragmentation could make it harder for either camp to assemble 61 seats.

And then there is the Arab vote.

Arab parties are currently projected to hold enough seats to matter in coalition calculations, but whether those seats can translate into actual government support is a separate political question.

So, will Netanyahu lose the premiership?

Right now, the evidence points to a genuine contest rather than a settled outcome.

Prediction markets give Eisenkot the edge. Several recent polls also show his Yashar party tied with or ahead of Likud.

But the broader polling average still gives Netanyahu’s bloc a modest advantage, and no major camp has consistently reached the 61-seat threshold.

That means Netanyahu is certainly vulnerable, but he is far from defeated.

The October 27 vote will determine the Knesset. The next government will then be determined by coalition arithmetic and political negotiations.

In other words, the real question is not simply whether Eisenkot can beat Netanyahu.

It is whether either man can build 61 seats behind him once the ballots have been counted.