US President Donald Trump’s long-running campaign for a Nobel Peace Prize is unlikely to end with the award this year, according to experts watching the Norwegian Nobel Committee’s decision.

The 2026 Nobel Peace Prize will be announced in Oslo on Friday, October 9, with Trump’s name likely to remain part of the conversation even if he is not the eventual laureate.

Reuters, citing experts familiar with the prize and the Norwegian peace research community, reported that Trump’s prospects appear limited. His ongoing conflict with Iran, confrontational approach to international institutions and controversial foreign-policy positions have complicated the argument that he fits the Nobel Peace Prize’s purpose.

At the same time, analysts say Trump could still influence the political atmosphere around this year’s decision.

Haakon Gjerløw of the Peace Research Institute Oslo, or PRIO, described Trump as “the spectre in the room,” reflecting the unusual attention surrounding the US president’s interest in the prize.

When will the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize be announced?

The Norwegian Nobel Committee is scheduled to announce the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize on Friday, October 9, at 11 a.m. Central European Summer Time at the Norwegian Nobel Institute in Oslo.

The prize will be announced by committee chairman Jørgen Watne Frydnes.

The announcement will come after a Nobel week in which the prizes for medicine, physics and chemistry have already been awarded. The Peace Prize traditionally attracts more political attention than the other Nobel categories because its choices can intersect directly with wars, diplomacy, human rights and international affairs.

Why are Trump’s Nobel chances considered weak?

Trump has repeatedly expressed his desire for a Nobel Peace Prize and has pointed to his foreign-policy initiatives as evidence that he deserves recognition.

But the 2026 geopolitical environment presents a difficult backdrop for such an award.

The United States remains involved in a major conflict with Iran, while Trump’s approach to international alliances and institutions has generated criticism from supporters and opponents alike.

Experts cited by Reuters say those circumstances make it difficult to construct a strong case for awarding Trump the Peace Prize this year.

That does not mean the committee has ruled him out. The committee’s deliberations are secret, and its members do not publicly reveal which candidates are under serious consideration.

Instead, the assessment comes from researchers, historians and analysts studying the prize and its political context.

Trump may influence the prize even without winning it

Trump’s impact on the 2026 Nobel discussion may ultimately have less to do with whether his name is on the laureate announcement and more to do with how the committee responds to the political climate surrounding the award.

Gjerløw has suggested that the Nobel Committee must consider whether a choice could create “harm rather than good,” including the possibility of a political backlash from Washington.

That concern is unusual but not entirely surprising.

The Peace Prize has repeatedly become a symbol in international disputes, with winners sometimes celebrated by governments and political movements while being condemned by others.

The Norwegian Nobel Committee therefore has to weigh not simply whether a candidate’s work meets the intellectual and historical criteria for the prize, but also what the award could signify in an increasingly polarized international environment.

Nobel officials say lobbying does not decide the winner

Kristian Berg Harpviken, secretary of the Norwegian Nobel Committee, has acknowledged that lobbying around the Peace Prize is common.

Attempts to influence the committee are nothing new, he told Reuters, but he said such efforts do not determine the committee’s discussions or final decision.

That distinction matters in Trump’s case because the US president has been unusually public about his desire for Nobel recognition.

The committee’s members are legally and institutionally insulated from direct political campaigning, while nominations can come from a very broad pool of qualified nominators around the world.

What happened with Maria Corina Machado last year?

The Trump-Nobel story became even more unusual after Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado received the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize.

Machado dedicated the honor to Venezuelans and praised Trump’s role in events surrounding Venezuela. She subsequently presented her Nobel medal to Trump during a meeting in Washington.

But there is an important distinction between symbolically presenting a medal and transferring the Nobel Prize itself.

The Norwegian Nobel Institute has made clear that a Nobel Peace Prize cannot be transferred, shared or formally given away after it has been awarded.

Trump therefore did not become a Nobel laureate as a result of Machado’s gesture.

The episode nevertheless intensified speculation over whether the committee might feel pressure to recognize Trump in 2026.

Who could win instead?

Because the Norwegian Nobel Committee does not disclose the names of current nominees, no genuine public shortlist exists.

Still, a number of individuals and organizations have emerged through expert predictions, public statements and specialist Nobel-watch lists.

PRIO’s updated list includes Save the Children and Ukrainian children’s rights advocate Mykola Kuleba, Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms, the Committee to Protect Journalists, the International Court of Justice and International Criminal Court, and the International Space Station.

These are not official Nobel nominees confirmed by the committee.

They are candidates highlighted by experts as possible choices based on their work and the themes the Peace Prize may seek to emphasize this year.

Could Save the Children win the Nobel Peace Prize?

Save the Children is one of the more straightforward possibilities being discussed.

The organization works internationally to protect children, including those affected by armed conflict, displacement and humanitarian crises.

PRIO’s Gjerløw has argued that recognizing child protection could draw attention to the devastating impact of wars on children while highlighting organizations working to safeguard them.

The choice would also fit a broader humanitarian interpretation of Alfred Nobel’s vision of advancing peace and reducing suffering.

What about Mykola Kuleba?

Ukrainian children’s rights advocate Mykola Kuleba has also appeared on PRIO’s list.

Kuleba has worked on protecting children affected by Russia’s war in Ukraine and on efforts to return children taken from occupied Ukrainian territories.

A prize centered on children’s rights would allow the committee to address one of the defining humanitarian consequences of modern warfare without directly rewarding a political leader.

Could Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms win?

Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms, or ERRs, have attracted attention because of their work during Sudan’s devastating war.

The decentralized network of volunteers has helped civilians obtain food, medicine and emergency assistance amid fighting and the breakdown of public services.

A prize for ERRs would highlight grassroots humanitarian action rather than state power.

It would also place Sudan’s conflict and humanitarian catastrophe much more prominently on the global stage.

Could the Nobel Committee choose an institution instead?

Absolutely.

The Peace Prize has a long history of recognizing organizations and institutions rather than individual politicians.

Among the speculative names discussed this year are the Committee to Protect Journalists, the International Criminal Court and the International Court of Justice.

Supporters of such choices argue that institutions defending international law, accountability and freedom of expression have become increasingly important as major powers challenge established international norms.

Another unusual possibility raised by experts is the International Space Station.

The ISS represents cooperation among countries that have often been geopolitical rivals on Earth, making it an example of scientific collaboration surviving periods of intense international tension.

PRIO included the ISS on its September 2026 list.

Why international law could become a Nobel theme

The 2026 Peace Prize is being considered against a backdrop of unusually high levels of armed conflict.

PRIO’s latest conflict research found 65 state-based conflicts across 35 countries in 2025, the highest number recorded since 1946. The institute also reported more than 250,000 conflict-related fatalities during the year, making 2025 one of the deadliest periods since the end of the Cold War.

That environment gives the committee a wide range of possible themes.

It could reward people working to end particular conflicts. It could recognize humanitarian organizations protecting civilians. And it could honor institutions defending international law. Or it could select a relatively unexpected div whose work represents cooperation at a time of growing geopolitical fragmentation.

Could the committee deliberately avoid choosing someone Trump supports?

It is possible, but impossible to know in advance.

Some experts have speculated that the committee could choose an individual or organization whose work stands in tension with Trump’s political approach.

Names such as UN special rapporteur Francesca Albanese, the ICC and ICJ have been discussed in that context.

But treating such a selection as an anti-Trump strategy would oversimplify the Nobel process.

The committee does not publicly describe its deliberations as a response to a particular politician. Its formal mandate is to identify a person or organization that has made a significant contribution to peace, based on Alfred Nobel’s stated criteria.

How many people were nominated for the 2026 Peace Prize?

The Norwegian Nobel Institute says 287 candidates were nominated for the 2026 Peace Prize.

That total includes 208 individuals and 79 organizations.

But the number does not reveal which candidates remain under active consideration.

The Nobel system keeps nomination records confidential for 50 years. Names appearing in the media can come from people claiming to have submitted a nomination, from parliamentary or public statements, or from outside speculation.

That means reports describing Trump, Save the Children, Kuleba or other divs as “nominees” need to be read carefully unless the claim comes from an authorized nomination disclosure that the Nobel Institute itself has confirmed, which it generally does not do.

What will determine Trump’s Nobel fate?

Ultimately, almost everything remains behind closed doors.

The Norwegian Nobel Committee has already reviewed the nominations and assembled its internal shortlist. It consults outside experts and examines relevant research before making its final decision.

The committee’s deliberations are secret.

That makes prediction markets, expert lists and media reports useful for gauging the public mood, but they cannot reveal what the committee has actually decided.

Trump could still theoretically emerge as the laureate. The fact that experts currently consider his chances low is not a formal rejection.

The final countdown to Oslo

As Friday approaches, Trump’s Nobel campaign is likely to remain one of the most politically charged storylines surrounding the Peace Prize.

His supporters can point to diplomatic initiatives and ceasefire efforts that they say have reduced conflict. Critics argue that ongoing warfare and his clashes with international institutions undermine his claim to a prize dedicated to peace.

The Norwegian committee will have the final say, and it will do so without publishing its internal reasoning before the announcement.

So the question is not whether Donald Trump has attracted enough attention to the Nobel Peace Prize.

He already has.

The more consequential question is whether the committee believes his record in 2026 represents the kind of sustained contribution to peace envisioned by Alfred Nobel.

At 11 a.m. in Oslo on October 9, the speculation ends. Until then, Trump’s Nobel bid remains exactly that: a possibility, not a prediction carved in stone.