Just before US President Donald Trump authorized a military operation to capture Nicolás Maduro, the CIA completed a classified assessment examining what Venezuela might look like if Maduro were suddenly removed from power.

According to a report by The New York Times, the covert analysis was requested by senior administration officials as Trump weighed the risks and consequences of taking direct action. The report focused less on a US-led overthrow and more on realistic exit scenarios for Maduro, ranging from negotiated agreements to sustained American pressure and, as a last resort, force.

What scenarios did the CIA evaluate?

People briefed on the intelligence assessment said the CIA examined multiple pathways for Maduro’s departure rather than assuming a single outcome. These included a negotiated transition in which Maduro steps aside voluntarily, intensified pressure through sanctions and asset seizures, and the possibility of a forcible removal if other options failed.

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The analysis was intended to guide decision-making at the highest level as Trump considered approving a high-risk operation against a heavily fortified Venezuelan military installation. Officials familiar with the report said it played a role in shaping the president’s final decision.

Who did the CIA see as the most likely successor?

One of the most consequential conclusions of the assessment was its view on succession. The CIA, drawing on broader intelligence work, identified Vice President Delcy Rodríguez as the individual best positioned to take control immediately if Maduro was removed.

This assessment carried significant weight inside the administration. While some lawmakers and Venezuelan citizens have pointed to opposition leader María Corina Machado as a potential alternative leader, intelligence reviews raised doubts about whether she had the organizational structure or political leverage needed to assume power quickly in a post-Maduro scenario.

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Why was the administration cautious about the opposition

According to officials familiar with the intelligence, the CIA questioned whether the opposition could translate popular support into effective control of state institutions, the military, and security services. The concern was not ideological but practical: removing Maduro without a clear and viable successor could deepen instability rather than resolve it.

As a result, the administration leaned heavily on intelligence assessments rather than public sentiment or political symbolism when evaluating next steps.

What did US officials hope would happen before the raid?

Before the operation went ahead, some Trump administration officials believed that sustained pressure might be enough to force Maduro to resign on his own. This strategy included aggressive sanctions, limited maritime actions, and efforts to seize Venezuelan oil assets abroad.

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At the same time, other officials explored the possibility of a negotiated exit that would allow Maduro to step down peacefully in exchange for certain guarantees. Those efforts ultimately failed, leading to the decision to authorize the military raid.

The existence of the classified CIA assessment was first reported by the Wall Street Journal earlier the same day.

What happens next for Venezuela?

With Maduro now in US custody, facing charges in New York, questions about Venezuela’s political future have become urgent. Stability, control of the armed forces, and international recognition are now central concerns for Washington and regional governments.

For now, Delcy Rodríguez has assumed the role of acting president. Whether her leadership stabilizes the country or triggers further unrest remains uncertain, and US officials continue to monitor developments on the ground closely.

TL;DR

Ahead of Nicolás Maduro’s capture, the CIA produced a classified assessment exploring how Venezuela might transition without him. The report examined multiple exit scenarios and identified Vice President Delcy Rodríguez as the most likely immediate successor. The analysis influenced President Trump’s decision-making and continues to shape US thinking as Venezuela enters a volatile new phase.