India’s crude oil imports from Russia have rebounded sharply in October after three months of decline, even as US President Donald Trump claimed that Prime Minister Narendra Modi had assured him New Delhi would stop buying Russian crude, a statement that India has denied.

India’s Russian oil imports rise again

According to ship-tracking data, India’s crude oil imports from Russia rose to around 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd) in the first half of October, up from about 1.55 million bpd in September.

The increase comes after a three-month decline in arrivals between July and September, during which refineries underwent maintenance shutdowns. The latest uptick reflects higher refinery runs to meet festive season demand and renewed discounts on Russian grades, such as Urals, amid subdued Western demand.

Data from global trade analytics firm Kpler indicate that Russian shipments to India have increased in pace, driven by improved freight flexibility and competitive pricing.

“Russian barrels remain deeply embedded in India’s energy system for economic, contractual, and strategic reasons,” said Sumit Ritolia, Lead Research Analyst (Refining & Modelling) at Kpler.

He noted that discounts on Russian crude currently average between USD 3.5 and USD 5 per barrel, up from USD 1.5–2 earlier this year, making them one of the most cost-effective feedstocks for Indian refiners.

Trump’s claim and India’s denial

The rebound in Russian oil imports coincides with Trump’s October 15 claim that Modi had personally assured him India would soon halt Russian crude purchases.

“He’s a friend of mine… I was not happy that India was buying oil, and he assured me today that they will not be buying oil from Russia. That’s a big step,” Trump told reporters at the White House.

The statement, which followed weeks of tense trade negotiations between New Delhi and Washington over Trump’s 50% tariffs on Indian imports, sparked confusion and political uproar in both capitals.

India’s Ministry of External Affairs swiftly denied the existence of any such conversation.

“I am not aware of any conversation yesterday between the two leaders,” said MEA spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal, adding that India’s oil import policy is guided by the goal of protecting domestic consumers amid volatile global markets.

Jaiswal also reaffirmed that India continues to seek greater energy trade with the US, noting that discussions on expanding cooperation are “ongoing.”

Opposition backlash and diplomatic ripples

Trump’s remarks drew sharp reactions from India’s opposition leaders. Congress MP Rahul Gandhi claimed that “Modi is frightened of Trump,” criticizing the lack of clarity from the Indian government. Shiv Sena (UBT) leader Priyanka Chaturvedi accused the Prime Minister’s Office of “silence in the face of misleading foreign claims.”

Meanwhile, Russia’s ambassador to India, Denis Alipov, defended Moscow’s oil trade with New Delhi.

“Our oil supplies are very beneficial for the Indian economy and the welfare of the Indian people,” Alipov said, emphasizing that both India and the US are “independent in their decisions.”

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Russia remains India’s top crude supplier

Despite Trump’s claims, the data paints a different picture. Russia continues to be India’s largest crude oil supplier, accounting for roughly 34–40% of total imports.

In comparison, Iraq supplied 1.01 million bpd and Saudi Arabia 830,000 bpd in early October, followed by the US at 647,000 bpd and the UAE at 394,000 bpd, according to Kpler.

Ritolia explained that India’s July–September dip was largely due to maintenance shutdowns at major public-sector refineries such as MRPL, CPCL, and BORL, rather than geopolitical shifts.

“Replacing Russian crude is technically feasible, but economically costly,” he said. “Any abrupt move to cut imports would risk higher freight costs, weaker discounts, and potential inflationary pressures.”

He added that while Indian refiners are gradually diversifying their sourcing, including higher purchases from the US, a complete shift away from Russian crude remains improbable without formal international sanctions.

The balancing act

India has long maintained that its energy policy is guided by national interest, not external pressure. Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, New Delhi has purchased discounted Russian oil to cushion consumers from global price shocks.

From just 1.7% of India’s oil imports in FY2020, Russia’s share jumped to over 40% in FY2024. The steep discounts have significantly reduced India’s import bill while supporting refinery profitability.

Analysts believe that even under pressure from Washington, New Delhi is unlikely to take drastic measures.

“If Washington intensifies pressure, India may make symbolic cuts of 100,000–200,000 bpd to signal diversification,” Ritolia said. “But such moves would be diplomatic gestures, not structural change.”

Outlook

As the global energy landscape evolves under political scrutiny, India finds itself balancing economic pragmatism with diplomatic sensitivities.

While Trump’s claim grabbed headlines, the numbers suggest that India’s energy strategy remains firmly autonomous, driven by price, not politics.

And for now, as October’s rebound shows, Russian crude continues to power India’s refineries and festivals alike.